The tornado risk tomorrow has been upgraded to level 4 of 5 for potentially strong/destructive tornadoes. Timing information is included in the attached packet.
The severe weather risk onset will mark the start of a period of very heavy rainfall. The rainfall forecasts are essentially unchanged from 12 hours ago, with up to a foot of rain forecast over several days. This would lead to potentially catastrophic flash flooding. What we mean by that is areas where homes and businesses are inundated, roadways are closed or washed out, impacts and flooding in areas that normally don’t see flooding.
The flooding in February had a widespread 5-6 inches of rain over parts of western Kentucky. This is more of a widespread 7-10 inches and with the intensity of thunderstorms could be even more. There will also be at least some continued severe weather risk at times Thursday and especially Friday and Saturday. The only potential silver lining is that the heaviest rain bouts MAY spread out enough to give us time to buy some drainage, but that is not a guarantee.
I wish we had better news, but that is where we are at. The models have been bang on consistent for a week now and it is every single model and that is further evidence that this event is very likely to occur in a similar vein to what we have forecast currently.
-Justin Gibbs
Lead Forecaster
NWS Paducah
